Sunday, March 14, 2010

Reaching the mountain top only to gaze at the abyss on the other side

7 years to reach this point. 4 yrs of undergrad and 3 yrs of law school. The climb to the peak has been uneven, with the first 4 yrs being the easiest, except for the LSAT which happened to be the most difficult part for me. The first yr of law school sucked balls as we were all terrified of either being flunked out and not making the top 10% of the class. After countless hours of reading, studying, memorizing, I ranked in the dead median of the class. The next 2 yrs was a complete joke as I never paid any attention in class, didnt show up to class, or was trading commodities in class. I actually ended up doing better the less I studied. I got one of the highest grades in community property even though I missed 6 lectures. What the fuck right??

The bar exam was the final slope before reaching the peak. Admittedly the cal bar was stressful as all hell. I studied for a good 6 weeks and passed. Again, I thought the bar was easier than the goobledeegook LSAT questions.

The results came on the 20th of November. My family and friends celebrated my success as we popped champaigne. Within a few days the euphoria faded and I stared into the blackest, darkest, scariest fucking thing I have ever seen in my life: the legal job market for a T4 grad. A non law review, non moot court tier 40000 grad. The deeper and harder I stared into the abyss, the more it sucked me in. I now stand at the precipice of this huge 5000 foot cliff, wondering what the hell do I do now.

You see, while in law school you havent reached the peak yet. Even though I knew what was behind the peak, I never got to stare at the abyss in all its horrifying blackness. Even postbar you have the distraction of "possibly not passing" so the view of the abyss is still somewhat obstructed. As one who generally does not delude himself with cognitive dissonance, I researched the legal market conditions as I progressed through my law school education. Its one thing to hear about something, its another to actually SEE it. When you send out 100's of applications and dont get a phone call, no interview, not even a email, you see the abyss. When veteran attorneys tell me to "go do something else kid", you see the abyss. When one of my fellow grads gets told my another veteran lawyer "if i was you i would shoot myself in the head", you see the abyss. When you actually gaze upon this black hole where not even light can escape, then you truly understand in what kind of a clusterfuck you have gotten yourself into.

So here I stand at the mountaintop, looking at the black abyss before me. I cant go backwards as 7 years is 7 years. My JD and law license wont help me get a nonlegal job and in reality will only hurt my job prospects. Some glimmers of hope still present themselves as possibly some attorney may pick me up for $15 an hour. Maybe I can learn the tricks of the trade and go solo after a few years. Maybe some big PI case will land at my feet (i have a huge network) and I can take it 50/50 with some PI stud. Then the fear hits me. The fear that I will never get a legal job ever. I have heard the stories and know the statistics. I know that of the 45,000 JD's that graduate every year, only 25,000 find legal work. In this environment no one knows how bad the numbers truly are.

Me and my fellow 09 grads have graduated in the worst legal job market in the history of the USA. The classes of 2010, 2011 and 2012 will see even worse. Hopefully by then this fucking law school bubble will POP. Believe me it will burst and when it does the healing process can begin. When less JD's are being pumped out by the law school loan companies the supply and demand imbalances could begin to correct. Until then, the next 3 classes of grads are going to pile right into the backs of the 09 grads like a fucking train wreck.

And for those that think that the economy has "turned the corner" and that things will be better soon let me be the first to tell you that you know nothing. We are entering the greatest depression the modern world has ever seen. The amount of credit in the system dwarfs what existed in 1929. This global ponzi scheme is crashing down and no government or its printing press can stop it. Surely they can delay it, but the more the print the worse it gets. The US alone has 53 trillion dollars in debt, this includes every man, woman, child, lawyer, corporation, state, federal gov, business, financial institution. All the debt originated in this country. It is close to 400% of GDP. And this debt does not include off balance sheet unfunded liabilities such as medicare and social security. When you include thos numbers ($75-100 trillion) you come to the inescapable conclusion that the collapse of the global financial system is at hand. 3yrs or 5 yrs is irrelevant. The fact of the matter is that its going to come. And when it finally ravages what is left of not just the legal job market, but the entire job market, then the abyss will have finished its work.


Standing at the peak, knowing that the abyss is growing larger, closer and darker. Trying to figure out what to fucking do. At the age of 27 (the average age of a law grad) I realize that my best earning years have effectively been stolen by a bunch of pin striped bandits on wall street and in congress. Thinking of a plan to avoid getting caught in the abyss.

Subprime

11 comments:

  1. Fifty-three trillion? The national debt clock has it at 12.5 T. Are you including other factors like personal debt?

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  2. The national debt which stands at 12.5 T is how much the federal government owes. The other 40 trillion is owed by everyone else, including personal debt, corporate debt, financials, state, city and local govs.

    http://www.oftwominds.com/photos09/debt-chart1929-2008.gif

    Check out the link. It shows where the debt lies. Also, take a look at the Federal Reserve Flow of Funds report. It breaks down all the debt out there.

    The US is leveraged up to its eyeballs. The news reports you read about Greece sovereign 120% does not include household or commercial credit. US household debt is 96% of GDP whereas in Greece household debt is less then 40% of GDP.

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  3. good post! Analytical, but with a personal touch.

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  4. Thanks boss. Add my blog! And show me how to add you guys! Im new to this blog world


    Peace

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  5. I too am a recent CA law school grad ('08), with a near-worthless tier 2 degree. I have seen the black-hole abyss, and have been in a state of depression and paralysis for months, even though I am lucky enough to find sporadic work in an area of law I wish to practice. Needless to say, what you wrote didn't cheer me up any, but something in me knows you are dead-on and we are in a world of hurt. For a long time I was deluding myself that things were going to work out. Unlike other recent slow-downs where one could wait-out things for a couple of years, this one feels like a totally different animal. Thanks for your great insight, and I will keep reading as painful as it is to face our situation.

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  6. We have to go through the 5 stages of grief. Denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance.

    What we have to do right now is think!!!! Think until our heads explode with thoughts. This I can say, if the herd is going towards the cliff, then we need to run in the exact opposite direction. Where it will lead us I dont know at this time. But there must be a way for us to better our situation. Whether that opportunity exists in the US or in Brazil it surely does.

    Thanks for reading.

    Subprime

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  7. Just found this blog today. I'll link to you.

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  8. I'll add your blog to my blog, too. It's good to find another fellow malcontent who also predicts doom and gloom.

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  9. I just got you on here Frank. Lets see how our predictions play out.

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  10. HEY!

    I've been doing some research and, while the US national debt is nothing to scoff at, you should keep in mind that the GDP is something like 14 trillion. The U.S. has a smaller debt as a percentage of GDP than many other countries, like Belgium. I mean, maybe there will be lean years and cut backs in programs, but it is unlikely that there will be any kind of economic collapse.

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  11. Christine:

    Check out Chrismartenson.com Its a website on my bloglist. Many of your questions re the US economy will be answered. The website has a presentation called the "crash course". It is a MUST watch.

    ReplyDelete

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