Saturday, June 18, 2011

District Attorney Jobs Getting Hammered in California; Market Update

Sacramento County DA Announces 42 Layoffs

As a result of $6.9 million in budget cuts, the Sacramento District Attorney's Office will lay off 42 employees by Aug. 1, District Attorney Jan Scully announced Wednesday.
The layoffs, which include 31 prosecutors, will mean many crimes in the county will go unpunished, Scully said in a press release.

http://fairoaks.patch.com/articles/sacramento-county-district-attorney-announces-42-layoffs

Deeper cuts threaten public safety- San Bernardino County

The District Attorney's Office was notified last week by the San Bernardino County Chief Executive's Office that we must cut an additional $2.1 million from our budget, over and above the $3.8 million we had already planned for. This would equate to a layoff of 12 frontline prosecutors on top of the 34 attorneys we have already lost in the past three fiscal years.

http://www.sbsun.com/pointofview/ci_18274366

Balancing County Budget May Require Cutting More than 200 Positions
Supervisor Valerie Brown calls 2011-12 budget "the worst ever seen"


Sonoma County may have to eliminate 223 positions and layoff 63 employees to help balance its 2011-2012 budget, County Administrator Veronica Ferguson informed the Board of Supervisors this morning.

Ferguson estimated in January that 300-500 positions might be eliminated -- 300 to help close a $44 million deficit in its $377 million general fund budget and 200 more because of potential state budget actions. The county currently has around 3,800employees.

County departments were asked in January to identify 25 percent savings in their budgets. The criminal justice portion of the budget, which includes the sheriff's, district attorney's, public defender's and probation offices, would lose 115 positions.

http://petaluma.patch.com/articles/balancing-county-budget-may-require-cutting-more-than-200-positions


Stanislaus County Law agencies struggling despite lower crime rates

• Frightening drops in revenue have whacked more than $27 million from public safety budgets in three years.
• The county's district attorney, public defender, sheriff and probation departments have shrunk by 245 positions since the recession. The Sheriff's Department lost nearly one in four employees.
"When there is no protection, there will be tragedies," said Janice Keson. She became a victims' advocate after her daughter and three men were massacred in Salida 21 years ago.
• Prosecutors lost one in five employees in three years, while those remaining are making 54 percent more court appearances than a decade ago. "It's crushing," said District Attorney Birgit Fladager.

http://www.modbee.com/2011/06/11/1728744/law-agencies-strugglingdespite.html

With the economy about to roll over again expect private sector attorneys to join the ranks of the unemployed as businesses cut expenses to make up for rising input costs and falling revenue. For those that are in the game hang on tight because it's going to be a scary drop. For those that recently graduated welcome to the worst legal job market in US history. And for those that are planning to begin law school in August, OPEN YOUR FUCKING EYES AS THIS IS THE WORST TIME TO GO TO LAW SCHOOL! Tuition continues to explode higher, terrible job prospects and the potential for financial ruin. Is it worth going into 150k plus worth of debt to be a lawyer at a time where the whole world is turned up side down? Check out what happened in New Hampshire a few days ago:

A New Hampshire man burned himself to death in front of a courthouse. The specific reasons are individual to him, regarding a domestic violence arrest and prosecution. But the larger reason he killed himself is that he says the system no longer follows the Rule of Law. Once you read past the details, he gives a fascinating analysis of the system. He argues for a complete takedown of the Federal Government and starting over from scratch.


http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-new-hampshire-man-burns-self-courthouse-protest

That's Tunisia style shit coming soon to a US theater near you. I'm sure many of you have seen headline after headline of CUTS CUTS CUTS CUTS CUTS CUTS taking place everywhere. In fact, in the 3rd quarter alone local governments will cut up to 110,000 jobs. I expect that number to come in much higher as governments always assume pie in the sky numbers for revenues. But the trend is painfully clear that the money is running out and the squeeze is coming to the USA. We've been able to get away with money printing and other extend and pretend methods for the past 3 years but the federal reserve is rapidly running out of bullets (for now). Congress is deadlocked on the federal debt and cuts are on there way. Let's see how Americans react to the pie getting smaller and smaller.

The one thing we can do is prepare for the coming smackdown. I know so many people that were making great money that now stand to lose it all. Why? Failure to save. Even now there are many out there that are working and making decent money but still fail to save. Now is not the time for excess, but a time of saving, a time of austerity. It will pass as all storms eventually do. Just think Joseph of the Bible and the 7 years of plenty and 7 years of famine. It's fucking famine time whether we like it or not. Now whether it lasts 7 years or 15 years that no one knows. But the signs are there for everyone to see.

Lastly, an update on the markets. The stock market has been rolling over in the past seven weeks as expected. The S&P 500 hit a near term high of 1370 and in the past 6 weeks dipped to 1258. All eyes are on the federal reserve as it's bond buying spree (QE2) ends on June 30, 2011. Already you are seeing the market discount the loss of $100 billion in monthly funny money. Silver is straddling the 50 and 200 MDA at around $35. Many are calling for silver to follow the stock market and other commodities lower in the summer and fall as recession risk, Euro debt worries and a Chinese hard landing are keeping the market on edge. Indeed, this week included terrible data coming out for the US economy with the NY Fed index missing big and the Philly Fed index registering a record 3 month drop. Initial jobless claims came in above 400,000 again signalling a weak payroll report for June, equating to a higher jobless rate. This fall could present an incredible silver buying opportunity. I'm still waiting for a better price. I could very well be wrong but that is my thesis.

Gold is a stalwart sticking to the $1500's. Gold is a better and safer investment then silver, but silver will outperform but with a scary pops and drops. Note that silver bottomed at $4 in 1999 and is currently at $35, a 875 percent gain while gold bottomed at $275 and is currently at $1539, a 559 percent gain. At the recent $50 silver peak gains reached an incredible 1,250 percent! So the thesis is that silver will outperform, but with higher volatility. My precious metals holdings are 50/50 gold and silver.

Commodities are finally beginning to rollover as well. Take a look:

Corn:



Crude oil:



Sugar:



Silver:



Until next time,

16 comments:

  1. This is nothing compared to what is coming. The "Technological Singularity" is near. Be ready!

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  2. Pretty cool stuff. The rise of the machines LOL. It's already started in the stock market with 80% of all trades being executed by computer driven algorithms. The problem is when the market falls the computers don't buy at all resulting in 1000 point drops aka the Flash Crash

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  3. I agree with Subprime. He's the Delphic Oracle of our generation. Thank God for his divine wisdom. We'd be lost without him. How ever could we survive absent the pontifications of this brave soul?

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  4. I agree with @2:05. Pure genius.

    The way you incorporate charts is brilliant. Never mind the historical price fluctuations, you provide data from a single year. That's conclusive evidence. Right? Compelling? Prima Facia? Am I right?

    Charts are awesome---even if we (or the viewers--i.e., readers) don't truly understand them or their inherent implications.

    A modern day Sophist, you are, my man. Congratulations. Your goal is simple. You aim to decrease the supply of attorneys by persuading others to forego law school, thereby increasing your market value (albeit, ever so slightly). Although, if you're aim was ever to be brought to fruition, you would have manifested a great feat, indeed.

    If you were (speaking hypothetically) able to dissuade all prospective students from attending law school for one year, then you would have eliminated approximately 43,000 competitors in that given year.

    Of course, if you (or others through a collaborative effort) could dissuade the vast majority of applicants from attending for a number of years, you could create an artificial shortage, thereby increasing your demand and market worth.

    Kudos. Well played, my friend.

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  5. Dear God, finally somebody has called you out. Do you think you're a shitbag lawyer just because you went to a 4th tier shithole. i bet you think your a pretty good lawyer. dont you? The only scam is the scam you pulled on yourself. You think just because someone attends a lower tier school this means their shit. Well it doesn't. They're may be reasons they attended a certain school that transcends GPA/LSAT.

    U need to step up, own your own worth, and demand respect. You and every other 3 or 4 tier student. How many people go to law school? How many graduate? How many graduates pass the bar?

    You've accomplished something important even if the market fails to realise it.

    Keep fighting. Don't give up,

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  6. On a related note, I know someone who graduated from law school in 2009. He is working at the State's Attorney General office for free. He has been doing this for the past 18 months. He has been successful in second chairing cases and handling forfeiture matters. However, he has not made a cent and he commutes 2 1/2 hours each day to work. His mileage is not being reimbursed. The State is close to bankrupt and this delusional fool believes once the hiring freeze thaws he will be hired. What he fails to realize is that about 40 States are close to fiscal bankruptcy. What is happening in Greece may happen here in the U.S. within 5 years. Yet the financial terrorists on Wall Street continue to collect sweet platinum parachute packages while fucking us over.

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  7. Wall Street has unquestionably fucked us. But it's not just Wall Street, it's more accurately the Federal Reserve (and its secretive benefactors).

    We lost this country with the passage of Federal Reserve Act. Woodrow Wilson knew it. We've all been played by an ingenious Zionist plan. They've controlled the money supply since the time of Jesus. Trust me, they didn't relinquish control, just because Jesus tossed over a couple tables in the Temple in protest.

    That's all we're doing now---tossing over a couple tables. Until we protest en masse against the powers that have unnatural control over our lives, we will never begin to realize the power of our collective potential. We must collect, organize, and erupt upon the political/economic with a power never before seen, if we hope to achieve a sensible government by the people, for the people. ONE GOAL AT TIME!

    We mustn't set out to achieve social justice across the board with a single stroke of a pen. This is a struggle. No less important than Martin Luther King's goal to create economic and social freedom for African Americans. We, too, must organize. Not social, simply discuss, and posit empty platitudes and derelict diatribes about the economy. We must---we absolutely must, if we hope to affect change---organize into a coherent political force. All else is nonsense.

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  8. Politico is right. We need to organize. Collectively. Constructively. That's the only way we can hope to achieve social and economic justice. Not by desperate shouts from the rooftop, but by collective chants of uniformed descent will we prevail.

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  9. Soon enough politico the protests will begin. Nando is coming to socal in oct and were planning some fun interactive social activities involving the law schools. Will post when time is right. And yes we need a Andrew Jackson to beat down the squid

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  10. In 1998, when I graduated, state and county prosecutor and public defender jobs were almost considered consolation prizes, and were not terribly difficult to obtain outside of big cities.

    True, they were often not well-paid, but they offered good benefits, good training, job security, interesting and socially useful work, and pensions at the end.

    Now, these jobs are almost as hard to come by as big law, and there is no job security for recent hires.

    Law school always sucked in terms of practical education, but it wasn't a scam 10-15 years ago because there were jobs on the other shore. It is certainly a scam now, though.

    I'm not shocked by the current assault on the public sector in the USA...it is a continuation of what has been ongoing for a long time. What truly depresses me is that Western Europe, land of free education and health care, is being devoured by banks too.

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  11. LOL @ 2:04, 3:46, 3:57, pretending they are different people. I especially liked the use of "U." Some dean's have been reading Perez!

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  12. "They're may be reasons they attended a certain school that transcends GPA/LSAT."

    Right. I believe it's called cheap money.

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  13. Cheap money? There's nothing cheap about 100K (or more) borrowed at 7% interest. Easily accessed, yes. Cheap, hell no.

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  14. I think the Technological Singularity has started. It isn't a Terminator-like event, but rather machines replacing humans and making them dispensable. As a result, wages plummet and inequality rises (rich can "hire" more productive machines and become richer, while everyone else has to lower their wages to compete):

    http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2011/06/labors-share-of-nonfarm-business-income.html

    http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~saez/saez-UStopincomes-2008.pdf

    There is no going back. Get ready for much, much worse conditions...

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  15. I disagree with the above poster. The current technological trends related to commerce doesn't represent a technological singularity. That term was borrowed from physicists by futurists to describe an "technological" event horizon, beyond which it becomes impossible to predict future events.

    It's easy to see where we're headed at this point in history, especially from a socio-economic perspective. Hence, we are not in the midst of a singularity-type event.

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  16. Justice has finally been served the District Attorney prosecuting the Duke la Crosse team and yes, this is a good thing. Yet one has to ask what about all the other bad District Attorneys across our nation - we should carefully scrutinize all of them too?

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