From the Department of Education's 2010 digest:
During the 2010–11 academic year, postsecondary degrees are projected to number 818,000 associate’s degrees; 1,696,000 bachelor’s degrees; 687,000 master’s degrees; 100,700 first-professional degrees; and 71,700 doctor’s degrees (table 279). Between 1998–99 and 2008–09 (the last year of actual data), the number of degrees conferred rose at all levels. The number of associate’s degrees was 41 percent higher in 2008–09 than in 1998–99, the number of bachelor’s degrees was 33 percent higher, the number of master’s degrees was 49 percent higher, the number of first-professional degrees was 17 percent higher, and the number of doctor’s degrees was 54 percent higher.
Let's run those numbers again:
1.69 million BA's
100k professional degrees
2.4 million BA's, MA's and professional degrees will be hitting the streets this month. Of course some BA's will chose to continue their education but from these states the ratio of BA to MA is nearly 3 to 1. So we can safely assume that up to 2.,2.2 million graduates will be hitting the job market this summer. Divide 2.2 million by 12 (months) and that equates to 183,000 jobs per month that the econony needs to create just to place this year's graduates.
And what about high school graduates?
Again from the Dept of Taking Young People's Money:
About 3,252,000 high school students are expected to graduate during the 2010–11 school year (table 110), including about 2,937,000 public school graduates and 315,000 private school graduates.
Of the 3.25 million high school grads at least 52% of them will go to college (using the college graduate numbers). Of course not all college students graduate so lets be safe and bump the percentage up to 65%. 65% of 3.252 million is 2.113 million, the remainder being 1.113 million. This gives us roughly 1.13 million high school grads that will not go to college. So in addition to the graduate numbers we have 1.13 million high school grads divided by 12 (months) equals 94,166 jobs per monthly basis to include the high school grads in the workforce. Ad 94k (high school grads) by 183k (college grads) and the country needs to add 277,000 jobs per month just to keep high school and college grads from being unemployed.
So my back of the napkin numbers show that the country needs to add 277k just to include the new entrants into the work force. Let's not forget the 10 million plus that were laid off or lost their business from the credit implosion.
Now let's take a look at the latest job date from the BLS:
57,000 jobs in retail trade
46,000 jobs in leisure
49,000 jobs in education and health care (bubble jobs soon to pop)
51,000 jobs in professional and business services
These four sectors made up the vast majority of the job growth for a grand total of 203,000 jobs. 50% are either low paying retail/leisure jobs while even the "professional" business services can include jobs for a wall street analyst to a shitlaw lawyer making 25k a year part time. Keep a close watch on the education and health care sector as both of them are overheated waiting for a pop, especially education.
Finally we have the birth/death adjustment, which is the government's guess as to how many jobs were created or destroyed from small businesses. The latest pie in the sky number was 175,000.
So how many "real" jobs did the economy generate last month? No one can truly know but I suspect its less than 100k. In addition, higher paying government jobs are declining month after month so a state employee that was earning 120k per year who now gets a gig working in retail for $12 per hour takes a big chunk out of his earning power.
In conclusion, the country is seeing a flood of graduates entering the workforce every year, with millions of them being levered up to their eyeballs in student loan debt. It is apparent that the organic economy is not generating enough high paying jobs to not only incorporate high school graduates but also the dangerously indebted "educated class." I expect the slow motion train wreck to continue until something gives, when the pressure of debt default reaches a boiling point. Obviously, this situation will not end well at all.