Thursday, June 3, 2010

What the hell are the classes of 2010, 2011 and 2012 going to do??

The flood of JD's that will be hitting the legal job market in the next 3 years is a train wreck in the making. The classes of 08 and 2009 got hit very hard, but these grads will have it even worse than us. For one thing, tuition continues to rise 7% per annum, making the cost of their law school attendance at least 21% higher than ours. In addition, with anemic hiring in the legal field, coupled with increased outsourcing of doc review, that leaves even more JD's hitting the "send" button on craigslist and monster.

I point out until 2012 because thats when I believe the law school bubble will burst. As all bubbles have demonstrated, there is the overshoot period. The LS bubble is currently experiencing its overshoot period because BA's are freaking out over horrible job prospects causing them to apply for "professional"degrees. Enrollment continues to rise, public perception of attorney earnings are seriously overinflated, and access to funding continues as the Dept of Education has ensured that no law student will be denied access to funding. Thus, we are in overshoot mode.

Slowly but surely the facts are leaking out that law school is the new subprime. More and more mainstream media articles are pointing out the fact that the debt burden is super high while the earnings prospects are super low. Still, public perception is in LALA land. Consider the conversation I had with my neighbor last night. I told him that I thought that my $25 per hour wage was very good considering my tier 4 credentials and what the market is offering entry level guys like me. His response was " YOU ARE AN ATTORNEY, YOU DESERVE NO LESS THAN $100 PER HOUR. YOU TOOK OUT BIG LOANS, SPENT YEARS IN COLLEGE AND LAW SCHOOL, STUDIED AND PASSED THE BAR. YOU NEED TO STOP SELLING YOURSELF SHORT. IM AFRAID THAT YOUR BOSS IS TAKING YOU OUT TO THE CLEANERS AND IS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF YOU". That was what he told me. After all the conversations, all the data I have shown him, all the links from the scambusters, still, he clings to these absurd beliefs. Perhaps he doesnt want to believe that the American system of education has completely fallen apart? Perhaps he fears for his young daughters as they are close to entering high school. Whatever his reasons may be, the bottom line is that public perception is nowhere near reality.

I asked my boss the other day whether or not he would recommend law school to younger people. He said "privately I would advise against it, but because of my pride I would tell him to go". Now isnt that some shit?? Its amazing how much people will lie to themselves and others due to their cognotive dissonance! I put that shit aside and tell anyone who considers law school NOT TO GO. The other day I met a guy who got accepted to USC LAW i told him to give it a shot, considering that his parents would pay for it. USC is in the top 20, he will have no loans. Sure, why not. But if I hear anyone say im going to this TTTT i tell them to run for their lives. As a fellow SubprimeJD it is my moral duty to warn others to avoid the trap. Its the main reason I started this blog. As post after post is written, certain key word will lead people to this blog and other blogs. The more we post, the more we write, the more the word will get out. We are doing our part.

Oh and for the record, due to the PART TIME nature of my work I am not working today giving me time to write this post. Yes you 0 L's this is what the "Esq" title gives you in California. It gives you part time work, no time work, possible full time work at a shitlaw firm. Maybe if you are top 10% at a top school you will have a shot. Other than that you are hanging yourselves. The graduates from the next 3 years are going to be crushed. This fucking profession is going to implode on itself.


  1. Keep preaching the gospel, Subprime!

    I don't know what it's going to take for the current crop of 0Ls to wise up, but I am beginning to despair that they ever will!

  2. Dont despair Locke, all bubbles and manias come to an end. It is truly going to be a sweet sight, when law school faculty will be in panic mode when the applications plummet. It sounds unfathomable now, but it will happen. When the tuitions grow to + $40,000 for TTT's and it is a well known fact that JD's are getting obliterated, the applications will plunge!

    Take a look at the Nasdaq bubble chart from a older post. Many observers were in shock back then, watching dot.coms rise in value week after week. The Nasdaq eventually topped out at 5048 points in March of 2000, only to crash and bottom out at 1139 points 2 years later. The crash was devastating for many and millions lost their retirements and savings. So shall it be with the law school bubble, just on a smaller and much quieter scale.


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